Market Overview

Markets are under pressure from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with crude oil and bond yields rebounding and the 10-year Treasury pushing toward 4.6%. Futures are down pre-bell as uncertainty around negotiations weighs on risk appetite. However, software stocks are staging a notable counter-trend rally, fueled by strong earnings from Cisco, BofA’s ServiceNow upgrade, and a general “baby with the bathwater” bounce in beaten-down SaaS names.

Top Movers

AGYS (+27.42%) — $89.45 → $95.00 (+6.2% upside) Thesis: This is a legitimate earnings-driven breakout — Agilysys crushed Q4 estimates with record revenue, accelerating SaaS growth, and AI integration in hospitality software. The RSI at 23.9 is paradoxically low for a stock ripping this hard, suggesting the stock was deeply oversold before this catalyst and the move has room to consolidate higher rather than immediately reverse. Levels: Exit at $95 (prior 6-month swing high area). Support at $75-77 (pre-earnings gap fill level).

BVC (+7.69%) — $11.35 → $12.50 (+10.1% upside) Thesis: Thin catalyst here — no company-specific news today beyond generic “financial sector” strength. The RSI at 17.4 shows extreme prior oversold conditions, so this looks like a dead-cat bounce or short covering rally. With a 99.9x P/B multiple flagged in January and a prior 22% single-day drop, this is a speculative micro-cap I wouldn’t trust. Levels: Resistance near $12.50 (January pre-crash level). Support at $10.50.

SNOW (+5.47%) — $173.22 → $185.00 (+6.8% upside) Thesis: Software sector sympathy rally — no Snowflake-specific catalyst today, but it was deeply oversold (RSI 10.6) after a 13.6% decline over 90 days. The move is technically a bounce off what appears to be major support. This has legs if the software rotation continues this week, but it’s riding the coat-tails of Cisco/ServiceNow optimism. Levels: Exit at $185 (50-day MA recovery zone). Support at $157 (last week’s close).

STUB (+5.36%) — $9.83 → $11.00 (+11.9% upside) Thesis: Double catalyst — Wall Street upgrade today plus a blowout Q1 showing return to profitability, $100M debt reduction, and 7% GMS growth. This is a recent IPO finding its footing with real fundamental improvement. The 34% weekly gain is aggressive but backed by substance. Levels: Exit at $11.00 (round number resistance, pre-IPO reference). Support at $8.50 (pre-earnings base).

FIG (+5.0%) — $25.58 → $28.00 (+9.5% upside) Thesis: Figma beat Q1 estimates handily (EPS 10c vs 6c, revenue $333M vs $316M) with accelerating growth and raised guidance. Goldman cut the price target despite the beat, which creates a tension that could resolve higher as other analysts update. RSI at 17.9 confirms this was extremely oversold before the earnings catalyst — classic “baby with the bathwater” software name. Levels: Exit at $28 (Goldman’s revised target zone). Support at $22.50 (pre-earnings level).

NOW (+4.0%) — $107.56 → $120.00 (+11.6% upside) Thesis: BofA reinstated coverage with Buy and a $130 target, adding fuel to a stock that was absurdly oversold (RSI 8.1). ServiceNow is a best-in-class enterprise software platform trading at multi-year lows — the analyst explicitly said AI supports rather than threatens the platform. This is one of the highest-conviction names in the software bounce. Levels: Exit at $120 (prior consolidation zone). Support at $96 (last week’s low area).

BRC (+3.87%) — $87.70 → $92.00 (+4.9% upside) Thesis: Genuine earnings catalyst — record adjusted EPS, 8.2% organic growth, and a data center AI narrative that’s real (identification/labeling solutions for hyperscalers). The 17% surge from Friday’s earnings call is the market pricing in a structural tailwind. This is an under-the-radar industrial beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout. Levels: Exit at $92 (psychological round number, prior 6-month range high). Support at $82 (Friday’s pre-earnings close).

INTU (+3.81%) — $418.51 → $450.00 (+7.5% upside) Thesis: Upgraded to Zacks Rank #2 Buy ahead of Q3 earnings this week, with double-digit revenue growth expected across QuickBooks, TurboTax, and Credit Karma. RSI at 1.5 is absurdly oversold — this is a mega-cap quality compounder trading like it’s broken. Earnings this week is the make-or-break catalyst. Levels: Exit at $450 (pre-selloff support turned resistance). Support at $403 (current week’s low).

FICO (+3.32%) — $1,221.10 → $1,300.00 (+6.5% upside) Thesis: Dominant credit-scoring monopoly bouncing from extreme oversold levels (RSI 8.0) after a 46% drawdown over one year. No specific catalyst today beyond sector rotation, but the “stocks that will make you rich” narrative and multiple bullish analyst notes suggest the bottom-fishing has institutional backing. Quality name at a deep discount to historical multiples. Levels: Exit at $1,300 (psychological level, prior support zone). Support at $1,150 (last week’s low).

DOCU (+3.2%) — $50.59 → $55.00 (+8.7% upside) Thesis: AI-powered Intelligent Agreement Management platform expansion gives this a fresh narrative, and RSI at 6.1 shows it was absurdly oversold. Sector sympathy plus a genuine product catalyst (AI contract assistants, partnerships with Harvey and Legora). The risk is that DocuSign’s growth story has been “almost over” for years. Levels: Exit at $55 (prior consolidation support). Support at $47 (recent low).

Headlines to Watch

  • Trump’s Iran War risks “unmoored” inflation, Moody’s warns, with Ed Yardeni seeing July rate hike — This is the macro headwind overhanging everything; if Treasury yields push above 4.6%, the software bounce will stall fast.
  • Nvidia earnings Wednesday after close, analysts expect $79B revenue — The most important single event this week; semis are now 18% of the S&P 500, making this a market-wide catalyst.
  • Semiconductor exposure in S&P 500 hits 18%, more than double the tech bubble peak — Concentration risk is real; a Nvidia miss would cascade across passive funds in ways most investors aren’t positioned for.
  • BofA reinstates ServiceNow (NOW) coverage with Buy, $130 target — Institutional validation of the software sector bounce; if NOW holds gains, it pulls the entire SaaS complex higher.
  • Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) — SoftVest and Blackbeard discuss merger deal — A potential corporate action catalyst for a trust that’s already up 132% on the Iran oil disruption.
  • SpaceX S-1 filing boosts space stocks — Sector tailwind for RKLB, LUNR, FLY if you’re looking beyond software today.
  • Intuit (INTU) Q3 earnings coming this week — Major earnings event for a deeply oversold mega-cap; the setup is binary — beat = violent recovery, miss = new lows.

Claude’s Top Picks

NOW (+4.0% today, +20.85% week) — $107.56 → $120.00 (+11.6% upside) Valuation: Trading at roughly 8x forward revenue after a ~50% drawdown from highs — historically cheap for a 20%+ growth enterprise platform with 80%+ gross margins. Upside: RSI of 8.1 with a fresh Buy initiation from BofA at $130 target gives this a clear institutional floor; the software sector rotation has momentum for days, not hours. Risk: If Iran tensions escalate further and 10-year yields break above 4.6%, all duration-sensitive software names reverse hard regardless of fundamentals.

FIG (+5.0% today, +32.33% week) — $25.58 → $28.00 (+9.5% upside) Valuation: Revenue growing 46% YoY with raised guidance, yet still down massively from IPO levels — cheaper than peers like Canva (private) on a growth-adjusted basis. Upside: Accelerating revenue growth, raised full-year outlook, and early AI monetization (Figma Make, Weave) give this a multi-quarter growth narrative that’s just beginning. Risk: Net loss widened to $142M from $8.6M profit — the profitability swing is ugly and could weigh on sentiment once the earnings euphoria fades.

INTU (+3.81% today, +7.94% week) — $418.51 → $450.00 (+7.5% upside) Valuation: Mega-cap quality compounder with RSI at 1.5 — this level of oversold on a profitable, growing business is historically a gift. Upside: Earnings this week should confirm double-digit growth; the Zacks upgrade signals institutional positioning ahead of the print. Risk: Binary earnings event — if guidance disappoints on macro softness or tax season weakness, the stock could gap lower before recovering.

BRC (+3.87% today, +17.04% week) — $87.70 → $92.00 (+4.9% upside) Valuation: Industrial company trading at a reasonable earnings multiple with record EPS growth — not expensive relative to peers given the data center tailwind. Upside: AI/data center identification is a structural growth story with real revenue (8.2% organic growth), not just a narrative — this is the kind of “picks and shovels” play institutions love. Risk: The 17% weekly run means the easy money is made; a broader market selloff on Iran/Nvidia could trigger profit-taking in recent winners.

Avoid

AGYS (+27.42%) — Despite the legitimate earnings beat, a 27% single-day gap on a $3B market cap hospitality software company is chasing territory; the risk/reward at $89 is poor when the stock was $70 yesterday and profit-taking is inevitable within 48 hours.

STUB (+5.36% today, +34.29% week) — Up 34% in a week on a recent IPO with limited float and no established technical levels; this is the kind of move that attracts momentum chasers right before a sharp reversal, and the RSI at 50 suggests it’s already mid-range rather than oversold.

ACDC (+4.35%) — ProFrac’s fundamentals are deteriorating (revenue down 25% YoY, net loss widening to $83.5M) and the news explicitly calls out “questionable fundamentals”; this bounce is technical noise in a structurally challenged oilfield services name, not a buy signal.

WSB Sentiment Check

No WSB trending ticker data was provided in the input, so this section is omitted.

Earnings Scorecard

AGYS — BEAT by significant margin | Stock: +27.4% reaction Record Q4 revenue with SaaS acceleration and AI integration drove a massive gap up. Reaction is justified given the surprise magnitude, but chasing here after a 27% move is the definition of buying high. Wait for a pullback to $78-80 for a better entry.

BRC — BEAT (record EPS, 8.2% organic growth) | Stock: +17% over two sessions The “AI for data centers” angle gave this boring industrial a growth stock premium overnight. Reaction is slightly ahead of itself but the thesis is real — this isn’t a one-quarter story. Buy dips, don’t chase.

FIG — BEAT (EPS 10c vs 6c, rev $333M vs $316M) | Stock: +32% week Market is correctly rewarding the acceleration, but Goldman cutting its price target despite the beat is a yellow flag. The net loss widening from $8.6M profit to $142M loss deserves scrutiny. Hold if you got in early; new entries need a tighter stop.

STUB — BEAT (return to profitability, $48M net income) | Stock: +34% week First profitable quarter as a public company plus debt reduction — the market is right to re-rate this higher. But 34% in a week on a recent IPO is parabolic, and the upgrade today feels like the final push before consolidation.