Market Overview

The market is bifurcating sharply around AI infrastructure — strip out AI chips, storage, and energy from the S&P 500 and forward earnings growth collapses to zero, per Lance Roberts at RIA Advisors. Today’s top movers reflect this reality: quantum computing stocks (RGTI, QBTS) are surging on a $2B government investment announcement, Dell/HPQ are running into earnings on AI PC/server demand narratives, and space/defense names (FLY, RDW) are catching SpaceX IPO tailwinds. The eighth straight weekly gain for the S&P 500 masks extreme concentration risk — if you’re not in AI or defense, you’re running in place.

Top Movers

HYLN (+42.6%) — $5.99 → $6.80 (+13.5% upside) Thesis: Navy/DARPA selected Hyliion’s KARNO power system for sea trials on the USX-1 Defiant, and Q1 revenue surged 479% YoY to $2.8M. This is a legitimate defense catalyst on a micro-cap that’s gone parabolic — up 212% in a month. However, at RSI 124 (impossibly overbought), $2.8M in revenue doesn’t justify chasing. This is the kind of stock that gives back 30-50% in a week once the narrative stalls. Levels: Exit near $6.80 (prior resistance zone). Support at $4.20 (pre-breakout consolidation area).

NVTS (+20.0%) — $29.25 → $34.00 (+16.2% upside) Thesis: Navitas is rallying ahead of a three-day conference showcasing GaN/SiC products for AI data centers, plus a clean resolution of SPAC-era earnout disputes removing an overhang. The India GaN licensing deal with Cyient and 800VDC AI server demos position it well in the power semiconductor narrative. RSI at 50 suggests this move has room — it’s not technically overbought despite the 37% weekly gain. Levels: Exit at $34.00 (upper channel from prior highs). Support at $24.40 (pre-breakout level).

RGTI (+19.9%) — $26.42 → $30.00 (+13.6% upside) Thesis: Department of Commerce announced $100M direct funding for Rigetti to develop quantum computers — this is real government money, not a research partnership or MOU. The $2B broader quantum sector investment lifts the entire complex (IONQ +12%, QBTS +44%). RSI at 71.4 is elevated but not extreme for a momentum name with a genuine institutional catalyst. The quantum trade has historically been violently mean-reverting, but government backing changes the fundamental story. Levels: Exit at $30.00 (round number psychological resistance). Support at $17.80 (prior week’s base).

HLIT (+19.7%) — $15.20 → $17.00 (+11.8% upside) Thesis: Harmonic crushed Q1 — EPS of $0.17 vs. $0.12 consensus (42% beat), revenue of $121.7M vs. $102.2M consensus (19% beat), AND raised FY26 guidance above Street. This is the trifecta — beat, raise, and beat-the-raise. RSI at 81 is hot but justified by fundamentals. A director selling 4,300 shares is noise at this size. Levels: Exit at $17.00 (measured move target from earnings gap). Support at $12.70 (pre-earnings price).

BB (+19.0%) — $7.91 → $8.50 (+7.5% upside) Thesis: BlackBerry hit a 4-year high after FedRAMP re-certification for AtHoc, CIBC raised PT to $8.50, and QNX demand is accelerating in automotive/robotics AI. The “physical AI” narrative around QNX is compelling — this isn’t the phone company anymore. YTD +107% with RSI only at 53 suggests accumulation rather than blow-off top. Levels: Exit at $8.50 (CIBC price target, near-term resistance). Support at $6.65 (20-day moving average area).

DELL (+16.8%) — $295.19 → $320.00 (+8.4% upside) Thesis: Dell hit all-time highs ahead of Thursday’s earnings report — traders are pricing in a strong AI server quarter. Evercore flagged Dell as top pick citing “resilient demand and higher ASPs.” RSI at 76.5 is elevated pre-earnings, making this a momentum-into-event play. The risk is classic sell-the-news — DELL has whipsawed violently after each of the last 3 earnings reports. Levels: Exit at $320 (round number/measured move). Support at $253 (prior earnings gap fill).

QBTS (+14.2%) — $29.40 → $33.00 (+12.2% upside) Thesis: D-Wave secured $100M government funding AND reported backlog up nearly 2,000%. The quantum computing sector is experiencing its “ChatGPT moment” with government legitimacy. RSI at 69.9 is hot but not extreme. Insider selling ($437K from a VP) is a yellow flag but modest relative to the move. This name is more speculative than RGTI — D-Wave’s annealing approach is less mainstream than gate-based quantum. Levels: Exit at $33.00 (prior swing high zone). Support at $25.70 (Friday close level before after-hours pop).

CRDO (+12.9%) — $218.41 → $245.00 (+12.2% upside) Thesis: Credo is a legitimate AI connectivity beneficiary — ZeroFlap cables integrated into Rebellions’ AI inference pods, Zacks Bull of the Day, and mentioned as an Nvidia alternative play. At $218, this has gone vertical, but the company has real revenue tied to hyperscaler buildouts. The Nvidia-alternative rotation narrative has legs as NVDA approaches $5T market cap and investors seek smaller picks-and-shovels plays. Levels: Exit at $245 (upper channel extension). Support at $193 (prior consolidation zone).

NTAP (+12.4%) — $139.36 → $155.00 (+11.2% upside) Thesis: NetApp is rallying ahead of Q4 earnings on AI storage/hybrid cloud momentum — new OpenShift data services for Kubernetes, and Evercore’s “networking and hardware poised for gains” call. RSI at 25.5 is deeply oversold (this is bouncing from a beaten-down level, not chasing), making it one of the better risk/reward setups on this list. The low RSI + positive catalyst combo is textbook. Levels: Exit at $155 (prior range highs). Support at $124 (52-week low area).

FLY (+15.5%) — $49.50 → $55.00 (+11.1% upside) Thesis: Firefly is riding SpaceX IPO filing hype, expanded its Texas manufacturing campus (144K sqft), and won multi-launch government contracts. RSI at 39.7 (not overbought!) with +147% over 90 days is unusual — suggests the stock corrected recently and is now re-accelerating on fresh catalysts. Blue Ghost lunar landers in production is a legitimate differentiator in the small-launch space. Levels: Exit at $55.00 (round number/measured move). Support at $40.50 (recent pullback low).

IMAX (+15.5%) — $39.12 → $43.00 (+9.9% upside) Thesis: IMAX spiked on reports it’s exploring a potential sale with preliminary buyer talks. M&A speculation is one of the strongest short-term catalysts — buyers typically pay 30-50% premiums. RSI at 64.6 leaves room. The 45% 1-year return suggests the board may be trying to capitalize on strength. If talks fail, this gives back quickly. Levels: Exit at $43.00 (estimated initial takeover premium level). Support at $33.90 (pre-rumor price).

Headlines to Watch

  • $2B Government Quantum Computing Investment — Direct $100M checks to RGTI and QBTS legitimize quantum as a national priority; this isn’t venture capital vapor, it’s DoD money with deliverables attached.
  • S&P 500 Earnings Growth Ex-AI Is Zero — Lance Roberts’ analysis should terrify anyone running a broad index strategy; the entire market’s forward growth depends on AI infrastructure capex continuing at this pace.
  • SpaceX IPO Filing — The largest private IPO in history is reshaping how investors value the entire space sector; FLY, RDW, RKLB, and ASTS are all moving on comparables repricing.
  • Dell Earnings Thursday — The AI server bellwether reports into all-time highs; a beat likely sends it to $320+, but sell-the-news risk is elevated given the 17% pre-earnings run.
  • IMAX Exploring Potential Sale — Buyout rumors on a company with strong IP and recurring revenue; if a strategic acquirer (Disney? Saudi PIF?) emerges, $45-50 is in play.
  • BlackBerry QNX Physical AI Narrative — QNX powering autonomous vehicles and robots reframes BB as an AI play; CIBC’s $8.50 PT raise validates the pivot story.
  • HP’s AI PC Cycle Ahead of Earnings — HPQ jumped 15% on AI PC enthusiasm pre-earnings; the “AI PC refresh cycle” is the next narrative after AI servers, but actual demand data is thin.

Claude’s Top Picks

NTAP (+12.4% today, +16.2% week) — $139.36 → $155.00 (+11.2% upside) Valuation: Trading at ~18x forward earnings with a 3.5% FCF yield — cheap relative to pure-play storage peers like Pure Storage at 35x forward; NTAP’s hybrid cloud/AI positioning is underappreciated. Upside: RSI at 25.5 (deeply oversold) bouncing into Q4 earnings with AI storage tailwinds and Evercore’s bullish hardware call — this is a coiled spring with a real catalyst ahead. Risk: If Q4 earnings disappoint on enterprise spending weakness, the oversold bounce reverses hard; support at $124 is the downside reference.

BB (+19.0% today, +27.8% week) — $7.91 → $8.50 (+7.5% upside) Valuation: At ~3x forward revenue, BB is cheap relative to automotive software peers like Aurora (10x+) and Mobileye (8x); the market still discounts it as a legacy tech turnaround. Upside: FedRAMP re-cert + QNX robotics demand + CIBC upgrade creates a multi-catalyst stack, and RSI at 53 means this isn’t technically stretched despite the 107% YTD run. Risk: BB has a long history of narrative shifts that don’t translate to earnings; if Q1 fiscal 2027 (likely June) doesn’t show meaningful IoT/QNX revenue acceleration, the premium compresses fast.

FLY (+15.5% today, +22.4% week) — $49.50 → $55.00 (+11.1% upside) Valuation: As a newly public space company, EV/Revenue is the relevant metric — FLY trades at a discount to Rocket Lab on a revenue-per-launch basis despite stronger backlog growth and government contract wins. Upside: RSI at 39.7 is genuinely not overbought despite massive recent gains; SpaceX IPO repricing + Texas expansion + government contracts provide multi-week catalyst runway. Risk: Space stocks are notoriously volatile around launch events — a single mission failure would crater this 30%+; the sector is also trading on SpaceX hype that could dissipate post-IPO.

HLIT (+19.7% today, +21.2% week) — $15.20 → $17.00 (+11.8% upside) Valuation: At ~20x forward earnings with 20%+ revenue growth, PEG ratio is approximately 1.0 — fair to cheap for a broadband infrastructure play benefiting from fiber/cable upgrades. Upside: The Q1 triple-play (beat + raise + beat-the-raise) is the strongest fundamental signal on this list; post-earnings drift typically continues 2-3 weeks for this magnitude of surprise. Risk: RSI at 81 is elevated; a director just sold shares; if broadband capex guidance from major telcos weakens, the multiple compresses despite good execution.

RGTI (+19.9% today, +48.0% week) — $26.42 → $30.00 (+13.6% upside) Valuation: As a pre-revenue quantum computing company, traditional metrics don’t apply — but $100M in government funding materially extends runway and validates the technology vs. peers like IonQ. Upside: Government funding announcements tend to have multi-week momentum as institutional investors update models; the quantum sector is in “early innings” of a legitimacy phase shift. Risk: Quantum computing stocks are the most volatile names in the market — RGTI dropped 60% in January 2025 on a single bearish comment from a CEO; position size accordingly.

Avoid

HYLN (+42.6% today) — RSI at 124 is literally off the charts. A $2.8M revenue company with a 212% one-month return and 400% one-year return is priced for flawless execution on defense contracts that haven’t generated meaningful revenue yet. The Navy sea trial selection is interesting but early-stage; the risk/reward at $6 heavily favors sellers over buyers.

AXTI (+16.4% today) — All-time highs ahead of a shareholder meeting with quorum issues, and the stock just raised $632.5M in equity (massive dilution) to fund expansion. InP substrates for AI are real, but at $140+ the market is pricing in a revenue inflection that hasn’t materialized. The 14% single-day drop after the equity raise shows fragility.

HPQ (+15.3% today) — Jumping 15% on “AI PC enthusiasm” ahead of earnings with zero actual demand data is dangerous positioning. RSI at 76.6 into an earnings report where consensus hasn’t moved higher (per Zacks: “estimate revisions don’t suggest further strength”) is a classic sell-the-news setup. The stock is down over 1 and 3 years — one good day doesn’t change the secular decline in printing.

WSB Sentiment Check

NVDA — WSB says: MIXED (55% bullish) Claude says: PARTIALLY AGREE — At $5T+ market cap, NVDA just beat earnings again and the AI capex cycle remains intact, but the mixed sentiment reflects reality: the easy money is made and the stock is priced for perfection. The Lance Roberts data showing all S&P 500 growth comes from AI infrastructure IS the bull case for NVDA but also the bear case if capex slows. Fair to be cautious here rather than euphoric.

AMD — WSB says: MIXED (55% bullish) Claude says: AGREE — AMD is the perpetual “cheaper Nvidia” trade that never quite works. MI300/MI400 are gaining traction but market share gains have been slower than bulls expected. Mixed is the right call — it’s not broken but it’s not leading either. Wait for a definitive data center GPU market share print before getting aggressive.

MU — WSB says: MIXED (55% bullish) Claude says: PARTIALLY DISAGREE (lean more bullish) — Micron is a direct beneficiary of the AI memory (HBM) cycle with improving pricing and supply discipline. The 712 upvotes with only mixed sentiment suggests WSB hasn’t fully embraced the HBM thesis. Memory cycles are turning and MU typically outperforms when DRAM/NAND pricing inflects — which is happening now.

ASTS — WSB says: BEARISH (30% bullish) Claude says: AGREE — AST SpaceMobile is running on SpaceX IPO sympathy with no company-specific catalyst and no revenue. The direct-to-cell satellite thesis requires massive capex and has execution risk at every stage. WSB bearishness on a space stock is rare and usually correct — when even the degenerates won’t buy it, listen.

RKLB — WSB says: MIXED (55% bullish) Claude says: PARTIALLY AGREE — Rocket Lab has the best fundamental story in small-launch (Neutron progress, backlog growth, Photon platform), but the stock has run 80%+ and is priced for near-perfect Neutron execution. Mixed is fair — the long-term thesis is strong but near-term risk/reward after the SpaceX-driven re-rating is less compelling. Would buy a pullback to $18-20, not chase here.

Earnings Scorecard

HLIT — BEAT by 42% (EPS) / 19% (Revenue) | Stock: +19.7% | Reported: May 12 Before Open The reaction is justified and arguably insufficient — a 42% EPS beat with raised full-year guidance above consensus typically drives 2-3 weeks of post-earnings drift. Buy-the-dip on any pullback toward $13.50-14.

LION — BEAT (Upgraded to Zacks #2 Buy post-earnings) | Stock: +15.8% | Reported: May 21 After Close Strong Q4/FY26 results with library revenue consistency. The all-time high reaction combined with analyst upgrades suggests this has room — but entertainment is inherently lumpy. Hold if you own it; entering here requires a thesis on the content slate.

HYLN — Revenue BEAT (479% YoY growth to $2.8M) | Stock: +42.6% (cumulative since May 12) | Reported: May 12 The multi-day reaction is wildly overdone relative to the absolute numbers — $2.8M in R&D service revenue does not justify a 400% stock move. This is a meme-ification of a legitimate defense catalyst. Sell-the-rip above $6.