Market Overview

Markets are mixed this morning as overnight U.S. strikes on Iran rattle geopolitical sentiment, but AI/software earnings (Snowflake +36%) and defense spending catalysts are overpowering the risk-off impulse. The PCE inflation report came in hotter than expected, pushing the Dow lower, while the Nasdaq holds up on enterprise software strength. It’s a bifurcated tape — defense/drones and earnings winners are flying while rate-sensitive names absorb the inflation surprise.

Top Movers

CRSR (+28.5%) — $12.61 → $14.50 (+15.0% upside) Thesis: Corsair’s pivot toward AI server infrastructure is the catalyst here — their former CFO just left for Bitdeer, validating the talent/strategy crossover narrative. WSB is all over this (665 mentions, 80% bullish), which means the easy money has likely been made. RSI at 87.5 screams overbought, and a +83% week means you’re buying someone else’s profits. This is a momentum chase with a thin fundamental foundation — an “AI strategy” announcement without revenue proof is the weakest kind of catalyst for a $12 stock. Levels: Exit near $14.50 (prior resistance zone). Support at $10.50 (pre-breakout consolidation).

RCAT (+24.9%) — $13.33 → $15.50 (+16.3% upside) Thesis: Pentagon funding discussions for domestic drone makers is a legitimate policy catalyst with WSJ sourcing, not just a tweet. However, RCAT’s RSI at 16.66 is confusingly low for a stock up 49% on the week — suggesting this data may be lagging or the stock had been deeply oversold before this rip. The Trump defense-spending pump is real but historically these fade within 1-2 weeks once the news cycle moves on. Company-specific contract wins would need to follow. Levels: Exit near $15.50 (round number resistance). Support at $10.50-$11.00 (pre-catalyst base).

ONDS (+18.1%) — $12.76 → $14.80 (+16.0% upside) Thesis: Same drone/Pentagon funding catalyst as RCAT, but ONDS has the added kicker of the Omnisys AI defense acquisition and a shareholder meeting today that could produce announcements. RSI at 67 is far more reasonable than peers, suggesting this name hasn’t fully run yet. The Omnisys deal adds high-margin defense AI software — a better fundamental story than pure hardware drone plays. Levels: Exit near $14.80 (fibonacci extension zone). Support at $10.80 (Wednesday’s close).

DLTR (+15.7%) — $110.89 → $120.00 (+8.2% upside) Thesis: Clean earnings beat — adjusted EPS of $1.74 vs. $1.53 consensus (14% beat), raised full-year guidance to $6.70-$7.10, and the DoorDash delivery partnership is a genuine revenue expansion catalyst. RSI at 9.97 before today’s move means this stock was absurdly oversold — this is a legitimate mean-reversion setup with fundamental confirmation. The guidance raise signals management confidence that tariff fears were overdone. Levels: Exit near $118-$120 (200-day MA zone likely). Support at $96-$98 (recent lows).

BBY (+11.6%) — $72.02 → $78.00 (+8.3% upside) Thesis: First-quarter earnings beat driven by MacBook Neo launch and tax refund tailwinds. EPS surprise of +5% and comparable sales growth exceeded expectations. RSI at 16.59 pre-move means this was deeply oversold retail getting a fundamental reset. The CEO transition (Corie Barry stepping down) adds uncertainty, but results suggest the business is executing regardless. This is a buy-the-beat in a hated sector. Levels: Exit near $78 (prior support-turned-resistance). Support at $65-$66 (recent lows).

BTU (+7.4%) — $28.27 → $30.50 (+7.9% upside) Thesis: China coal mine disaster reducing supply + Iran strikes threatening energy infrastructure = dual supply-squeeze narrative. But BTU just reported a Q1 net loss and has a securities fraud investigation ongoing regarding its Centurion mine. This is a commodity trade dressed up as a story — proceed with caution. The governance issues are real headwinds. Levels: Exit near $30.50 (prior range high). Support at $26 (50-day MA zone).

LUNR (+6.9%) — $43.12 → $50.00 (+16.0% upside) Thesis: SpaceX IPO hype is lifting all space boats, and LUNR specifically got price target hikes from Cantor ($43) and Roth ($75). The NASA LTV contract loss was a setback but the market is looking past it. At RSI 53, this isn’t overextended yet. The SpaceX IPO creates a structural re-rating catalyst for the entire space sector — this is more than a one-day trade. Levels: Exit near $50 (psychological resistance and Cantor target overshoot). Support at $35 (pre-SpaceX hype base).

FSLR (+6.7%) — $291.98 → $315.00 (+7.9% upside) Thesis: AI-driven electricity demand narrative continues to boost solar — this is a secular theme, not a one-day event. The India partnership with GameChange Solar expands TAM into a massive market. FSLR is the quality name in solar with actual domestic manufacturing and profits. Dow hitting all-time highs above 50,700 is pulling infrastructure/industrial names along. Levels: Exit near $315 (prior swing high zone). Support at $275 (20-day MA).

RDW (+6.0%) — $25.44 → $28.00 (+10.1% upside) Thesis: SpaceX halo effect plus a new multi-year NATO drone contract in the “high eight-figure range” — that’s real revenue for a company this size. But RSI at 104 (which shouldn’t mathematically exist, suggesting extreme overbought conditions) and +72% on the week means this is dangerously extended. Analysts see fair value at ~$14.44, meaning the stock is trading at nearly 2x fair value estimates. This is a momentum trap for latecomers. Levels: Exit near $28 if holding (round number). Support unclear given parabolic move — likely $20 if it cracks.

NOW (+5.3%) — $107.49 → $115.00 (+7.0% upside) Thesis: ServiceNow is catching a bid from the Snowflake-led enterprise software rally — when SNOW beats and soars 36%, the entire SaaS complex gets repriced. RSI at 7.5 pre-move means NOW was one of the most oversold large-cap software names in existence. The Oracle vs. ServiceNow AI comparison pieces are driving attention. This is a quality name at a deeply oversold level getting a sector catalyst. Levels: Exit near $115 (prior support zone). Support at $103-$105 (recent lows).

ALAB (+3.9%) — $338.08 → $370.00 (+9.4% upside) Thesis: Astera Labs targeting a $10B AI connectivity TAM with its Scorpio X-Series ramping — this is a picks-and-shovels AI infrastructure play with real product momentum. High insider ownership (up to 38%) signals management confidence. Multiple product lines contributing to growth through H2 2026 into 2027 gives multi-quarter visibility. Levels: Exit near $370 (prior high zone). Support at $290-$300 (recent consolidation).

Headlines to Watch

  • U.S. strikes on Iran overnight — Energy prices and defense stocks react; if escalation continues, expect VIX expansion and rotation into defensives. Watch oil closely.
  • PCE inflation data came in hot — This pushes back Fed rate cut expectations, pressuring rate-sensitive sectors (housing, small caps, REITs). Bond yields likely to rise.
  • Snowflake soars 36% on earnings — The read-through for enterprise AI/cloud spending is massive. This validates that AI budgets are flowing into software, not just chips.
  • SpaceX IPO filing details emerge — A potential $1.75 trillion valuation reframes the entire space sector’s investability. Every public space company benefits from the attention.
  • Pentagon drone funding discussions (WSJ) — Trump administration reportedly considering equity stakes in domestic drone makers. This is more than subsidies — it’s strategic industrial policy.
  • VOO approaching $1 trillion in AUM — Passive flow dominance continues; index inclusion/exclusion events become even more impacthat.
  • Salesforce gives lukewarm guidance — CRM’s deceleration raises questions about whether AI is cannibalizing traditional SaaS or just not translating to revenue yet.

Claude’s Top Picks

DLTR (+15.7% today, +18.6% week) — $110.89 → $120.00 (+8.2% upside) Valuation: At ~16x raised midpoint EPS of $6.90, DLTR is trading below its 5-year average forward P/E of ~20x — still cheap vs. its own history despite today’s pop. Upside: Guidance raise + DoorDash partnership is a rare double catalyst; the stock was RSI 10 before today meaning massive short covering likely has further to go. Risk: Tariff exposure on imported goods could compress margins in H2 if trade tensions escalate; consumer spending weakness in low-income demographics.

NOW (+5.3% today, +4.1% week) — $107.49 → $115.00 (+7.0% upside) Valuation: ServiceNow at an RSI of 7.5 is a statistical anomaly for a 20%+ revenue grower — the Snowflake beat confirms enterprise software spending is intact. Upside: Sector re-rating from SNOW earnings plus its own AI platform narrative gives NOW room to recover toward its 50-day MA; quality compounder at trough sentiment. Risk: If PCE data drives yields materially higher, high-multiple software could face another leg down regardless of fundamentals.

LUNR (+6.9% today, +28.1% week) — $43.12 → $50.00 (+16.0% upside) Valuation: Expensive on traditional metrics but the SpaceX IPO creates a structural sector re-rating; Roth’s $75 target implies significant further upside vs. current price. Upside: SpaceX IPO attention is a multi-week catalyst, not a one-day event; NASA lunar contracts provide recurring revenue visibility; RSI 53 means room to run. Risk: NASA’s decision to select rivals for the LTV contract shows LUNR doesn’t win everything; SpaceX euphoria could fade post-IPO pricing.

ONDS (+18.1% today, +36.3% week) — $12.76 → $14.80 (+16.0% upside) Valuation: Hard to value on traditional metrics given early-stage defense revenues, but the Omnisys acquisition adds higher-margin AI software that peers lack. Upside: Pentagon funding catalyst is WSJ-sourced (credible), shareholder meeting today could produce catalytic announcements, and RSI 67 is not yet overbought. Risk: Drone policy catalysts under Trump have historically produced sharp spikes followed by 30-50% retracements; these are low-float names that move violently both ways.

BBY (+11.6% today, +18.1% week) — $72.02 → $78.00 (+8.3% upside) Valuation: At ~12x forward earnings, BBY trades at a significant discount to specialty retail peers; FCF yield likely north of 5% at this price. Upside: Earnings beat + MacBook Neo product cycle + deeply oversold RSI 16 setup means institutional re-accumulation likely continues for several sessions. Risk: CEO transition creates execution uncertainty; consumer electronics is cyclically exposed to tariff-driven price increases.

Avoid

CRSR ($12.61, +83% week, RSI 87.5) — Peak WSB hype with 665 mentions, AI pivot is unproven narrative without revenue confirmation, and an 83% weekly gain on a $12 gaming peripheral company means you’re the exit liquidity, not the smart money. The CFO leaving for Bitdeer is actually a bearish signal for Corsair itself.

RDW ($25.44, +72% week, RSI 104+) — Trading at nearly 2x analyst fair value estimates ($14.44) on SpaceX sympathy. The NATO contract is real but already priced into a parabolic move. When RSI readings break mathematical norms, mean reversion is violent. This is a sell-the-news setup.

BTU ($28.27, +7.4% today) — Net loss in Q1, Centurion mine delays, securities fraud investigation, and a director resignation for “health reasons.” The China coal disaster supply narrative is temporary. You don’t buy companies under investigation because supply somewhere else got disrupted.

WSB Sentiment Check

MU — WSB says: BEARISH (30% bullish) Claude says: PARTIALLY AGREE — Memory/chip stocks are under pressure as today’s headline reads “chip makers struggle” while software soars. The sector rotation away from semis toward enterprise software is real this week. However, MU’s AI memory demand thesis is intact longer-term — this is likely a temporary rotation, not a structural breakdown. WSB’s bearishness at extremes often marks bottoms.

CRSR — WSB says: BULLISH (80% bullish) Claude says: DISAGREE — When WSB is 80% bullish on a stock that’s already up 83% in a week with RSI 87, you’re looking at peak euphoria, not an entry point. The “AI server strategy” catalyst is vaporware — no revenue, no contracts, just a press release. This is the kind of trade where WSB collectively loses money and posts loss porn in two weeks.

NVDA — WSB says: MIXED (55% bullish) Claude says: AGREE — Mixed is the right call. NVDA earnings are approaching and the stock is near all-time highs, but today’s “chip makers struggle” headline and the rotation into software creates genuine two-way risk. The setup is fine for holders but not compelling for new entries pre-earnings.

MSFT — WSB says: MIXED (55% bullish) Claude says: AGREE — Microsoft is a Goldilocks name right now. Azure growth is solid, AI integration is real, but the stock isn’t cheap and isn’t broken. Mixed is the honest assessment. No compelling reason to swing trade it either direction.

SNOW — WSB says: BULLISH (80% bullish) Claude says: AGREE — For once WSB got there on fundamentals. Snowflake soaring 36% on earnings means the beat was massive and guidance was raised. The enterprise AI data infrastructure thesis is validated. However, after a 36% gap-up, the easy money is made — chasing here requires conviction that the re-rating has further to go. I’d wait for a pullback to the gap-fill zone rather than buying the open.

Earnings Scorecard

DLTR — BEAT by 14% (EPS $1.74 vs. $1.53 est.) | Stock: +15.7% | Reported: Thursday Before Open The reaction is justified — a 14% EPS beat PLUS a guidance raise PLUS a DoorDash partnership is a triple catalyst. This was an RSI-10 stock getting fundamental validation. The move has legs for another week as shorts cover and estimates get revised higher. Buy-the-beat.

BBY — BEAT by 5% (EPS beat + revenue beat of 1.44%) | Stock: +11.6% | Reported: Thursday Before Open Reaction is slightly overdone for a 5% beat, but justified by the context — BBY was RSI 16 and deeply hated, so the beat triggers a violent short-covering rally. The MacBook Neo product cycle gives forward visibility. Hold for $78 target, but don’t chase aggressively above $73.

SNOW (not in top 20 but headline-relevant) — BEAT (massive) | Stock: +36% | Reported: Wednesday After Close The 36% reaction tells you this wasn’t just a beat — it was a narrative shift. Snowflake went from “AI headwind” to “AI beneficiary” in one quarter. This is the kind of move that takes weeks to fully digest as estimates are revised. The read-through for NOW, CRM, and cloud infrastructure is the bigger story.