Morning Brief — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Market Overview

AI infrastructure earnings are dominating the tape, with a powerful wave of beats from Nebius (+34%), CoreWeave (+19%), Super Micro (+19%), and Lumentum (+14%) confirming that hyperscaler capex is alive and accelerating. Wednesday’s CPI print (core +0.2% MoM, 3.4% annualized) calmed rate-hike fears, giving the bulls a macro tailwind to pair with the earnings momentum. Today’s PPI release is the next potential speed bump, but futures are pointing modestly higher as the AI trade leads sector rotation into technology and infrastructure names.

Claude’s Call

UP — The earnings-driven AI infrastructure rally has real fundamental legs today, not just momentum froth; with inflation data cooperating and the optical/cloud/server cluster printing blowout numbers across the board, the S&P grinds higher led by tech. The one risk is Cisco and Cerebras disappointing late yesterday, which caps the upside and prevents a runaway session — expect +0.3% to +0.6% on the S&P.

Top Movers

ARX (+43.9%) — $19.59 → $22.31 (+13.9% upside) Thesis: Thoma Bravo agreed to acquire Accelerant Holdings in a $4.4B take-private deal — this is as clean a catalyst as it gets. M&A deals offer the most durable single-day move because the floor is effectively the bid price. At $19.59, the stock is at its 6-month high and the implied deal premium is baked in, but spread traders and arbitrageurs will keep this elevated. The fib 1.272 extension at $22.31 represents the upside if a competing bid emerges. Levels: Exit at $22.31 (fib 1.272 extension / potential bump scenario). Support at $17.14 (fib 23.6% — where this trades if deal breaks).

NBIS (+34.1%) — $259.20 → $341.06 (+31.6% upside) Thesis: Nebius delivered a genuine blowout — AI cloud revenue surged 454% YoY, coming in at $582M vs. the $570M consensus estimate. This isn’t sector sympathy; this is a company executing at an extraordinary clip on GPU-as-a-service infrastructure with real enterprise contracts. The RSI at 50 suggests it’s not overbought despite the massive pop, and the stock is still off its 6-month high of $286.69 — technically there’s room to breathe. Michael Burry doubling his short is noise; he’s been early (and wrong) on AI thesis breaks before. Levels: Exit at $341.06 (fib 1.272 extension). Support at $239.52 (fib 23.6%) and SMA-50 at $222.04 below that.

CRWV (+19.3%) — $107.73 → $158.97 (+47.5% upside) Thesis: CoreWeave’s earnings validated the neocloud thesis — the company is growing revenue at 112.5% and EV/EBITDA of 27.8x is actually reasonable relative to peers at 19.1x given the growth differential. The stock is breaking out of a tight base (20-day range $60.82–$111.68) and is sitting right at the fib 38.2% retracement level of $108.50, meaning this pop is technically a breakout above near-term resistance. The AI-infrastructure picks-and-shovels trade is intact. The negative EPS ($-3.56) is a non-issue at this stage — this is a growth-phase company burning capital to build moats. Levels: Exit at $158.97 (fib 1.272 extension). Support at $99.40 (fib 50%) and SMA-50 at $90.88.

SMCI (+19.0%) — $37.61 → $58.23 (+54.8% upside) Thesis: Super Micro Q4 results and strong Q1 guidance confirmed it’s a direct beneficiary of the AI server boom — Dell moving toward $500 on the same tailwind validates the whole AI server market read. SMCI is recovering from a compliance/restatement hangover that kept it in the penalty box for months; this earnings print is a credibility restoration moment. RSI at 67.5 is elevated but not yet overbought, and the SMA-50 at $30.96 gives you a massive cushion below. Fib 38.2% support at $38.85 is essentially right here — this is a healthy pullback zone, not extended. Levels: Exit at $58.23 (fib 1.272 extension). Support at $38.85 (fib 38.2%) — a break below $35.35 (fib 50%) invalidates the thesis.

HLIT (+18.8%) — $14.26 → $19.36 (+35.8% upside) Thesis: Harmonic printed a legitimate earnings beat — broadband revenue of $133.5M was up 54% YoY and beat its own guidance of $115M–$125M by a wide margin, with EPS beating by 41%. Critically, management raised full-year guidance and reported a record backlog of $587.6M. The 44% growth in “rest of market” revenue (i.e., diversification away from top-2 customers) is exactly what bears were worried about not happening. RSI at 64 is solid momentum territory without being stretched. Levels: Exit at $19.36 (fib 1.272 extension / near 6-month high of $17.11). Support at $13.95 (fib 38.2%) and SMA-50 at $13.34.

MRX (+18.7%) — $71.13 → $84.37 (+18.6% upside) Thesis: Marex Group is a commodities trading and market-making house that just blew past Q2 estimates — revenue beat by 18% and EPS beat by 21%, with record profit across all four business segments. This is a genuine fundamental catalyst on a name with very low retail awareness (RSI at 15.42 — this stock was deeply oversold before today). The 39% YoY revenue growth is exceptional for a financial services firm. The stock is at its 6-month high right now, but the low RSI reading suggests a lot of the prior sellers are still on the sidelines. Levels: Exit at $84.37 (fib 1.272 extension). Support at $64.51 (fib 23.6%) given the magnitude of today’s move.

ATRO (+17.3%) — $87.89 → $99.04 (+12.7% upside) Thesis: Astronics raised 2026 revenue guidance to $1.02B–$1.04B on record bookings, margin expansion, and an Army radio test ramp. As a Boeing/Airbus supply chain name, it’s riding the commercial aerospace recovery AND defense spending uptick simultaneously — two durable secular tailwinds. The stock is at its 6-month high of $88.50, which is the only technical caution; but with guidance raised and record bookings, the fundamentals support a move toward the fib 1.272 extension. Valuation is flagged as FAIR vs. peers (29.9x forward P/E vs. 24.8x median) — slight premium but justified by 27% growth. Levels: Exit at $99.04 (fib 1.272 extension). Support at $79.35 (fib 23.6%) and SMA-50 at $74.08.

WEN (+14.7%) — $8.66 → $9.69 (+11.9% upside) Thesis: Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management is reportedly assembling a consortium to take Wendy’s private — this is a credible catalyst given Trian is already the largest shareholder. Fast casual take-privates have a strong historical completion rate when the largest shareholder initiates. The stock is near its 6-month high at $8.94 and RSI of 62.7 suggests moderate momentum. That said, “reportedly” is doing a lot of work here — until there’s a formal bid, this is event-driven speculation and the downside on a failed deal is a quick snap back to $7.44 (SMA-50). Levels: Exit at $9.69 (fib 1.272 extension). Support at $8.29 (fib 23.6%); stop below $7.88 (fib 38.2%) if no formal bid materializes within a week.

LITE (+13.6%) — $932.47 → $1,187.63 (+27.3% upside) Thesis: Lumentum (ticker LITE post-merger/rename) is the clearest optical infrastructure beneficiary in this earnings cycle — AI datacenter connectivity demands massive increases in optical transceiver capacity, and LITE just printed a blowout quarter. A respected semiconductor analyst still sees 22% upside from here despite the stock being down 90 days. The current price of $932 is below the fib 23.6% retracement at $936 — technically, this is still a buyable dip from the 6-month high of $1,053. The SMA-50 at $814 gives you a substantial floor. Levels: Exit at $1,187.63 (fib 1.272 extension). Support at $864.13 (fib 38.2%) and SMA-50 at $814.72.

BIRK (+15.0%) — $42.26 → $53.81 (+27.3% upside) Thesis: Birkenstock Q3 results showed double-digit growth across every geographic region, a revenue beat, and a raised full-year 2026 outlook — exactly the trifecta that justifies the 15% pop. The EPS miss of 1.15% is trivial noise next to the guidance raise. Birkenstock is a premium lifestyle brand with pricing power and expanding international distribution; this isn’t a meme trade. Current price of $42.26 is sitting precisely at the fib 38.2% support of $42.18 — this is an ideal entry zone for a momentum continuation trade. Levels: Exit at $53.81 (fib 1.272 extension). Support at $42.18 (fib 38.2%) — clean stop level right here.

CIEN (+11.5%) — $432.05 → $548.45 (+27.0% upside) Thesis: Ciena is riding the optical networking tailwind from AI datacenters — the same force lifting LITE and VIAV. The stock has returned 9.7x over three years and is pulling sympathetic buyers from Lumentum’s blowout. Technically, the current price of $432 is right at the fib 61.8% support of $421.31 and essentially hugging the SMA-50 at $431.66 — this is a technically sound entry off the fib cluster. The valuation warning (expensive on P/E multiples, reasonable on DCF) is a medium-term caution, not a day-trade killer. Levels: Exit at $548.45 (fib 23.6%). Hard support at $421.31 (fib 61.8%) / SMA-50 at $431.66.

Headlines to Watch

“Accelerant to Go Private in $4.4B Deal with Thoma Bravo” — Signals private equity is still finding value in insurtech/data platforms; watch for read-throughs to other specialty insurance names trading at discounts.
“Nebius Q2 2026 earnings: AI cloud revenue surges 454%” — The most important number in today’s market: GPU-as-a-service revenue is accelerating, not plateauing; this validates hyperscaler capex guidance and is net positive for NVDA, AMD, and the entire AI stack.
“DELL Stock On Track To Top $500 For First Time As AI Server Boom Gets Fresh Fuel From Lenovo, SMCI” — Lenovo up 19% in Hong Kong on record AI infrastructure revenue and Dell approaching all-time highs confirms AI server demand is a multi-vendor, global phenomenon — not just an Nvidia/hyperscaler story.
“Cerebras slumps as mixed quarterly results test AI growth narrative” — Important counter-signal: Cerebras missed key estimates despite surging cloud revenue, suggesting the market is now differentiating between AI infrastructure plays that have real enterprise traction vs. those riding the hype wave. Cerebras is increasingly cloud-dependent, not chip-dependent — that’s a business model question, not just an earnings miss.
“Wendy’s (WEN) Faces Take Private Bid As Consortium Offer Nears” — Trian assembling franchisees + institutional co-investors for a take-private is a sophisticated structure; this has a higher completion probability than a cold unsolicited bid. Watch for formal announcement as the confirming catalyst.
“Burry doubles down on Nebius short after stock surges 34% on earnings” — Michael Burry is now doubling down short on NBIS post-earnings. He has fundamental conviction, but he’s fighting 454% revenue growth and a momentum tape. This is a real risk flag for NBIS longs — not today, but in 2-4 weeks if growth decelerates.
“S&P500, Nasdaq End Higher As Fresh CPI Data Calms Earlier-Than-Expected Rate Hike Fears” — Core CPI +0.2% MoM / 3.4% annualized removes the near-term rate hike overhang that’s been capping growth valuations; today’s PPI is the follow-on read — a soft print extends the tech rally, a hot print could reverse morning gains quickly.

Claude’s Top Picks

NBIS (+34.1% today, +18.4% week) — $259.20 → $341.06 (+31.6% upside) Valuation: Trading at negative forward P/E (pre-profit) but EV/Revenue is the correct metric here — at 454% revenue growth, the valuation framework shifts entirely to growth-adjusted metrics where NBIS is flagged as CHEAP vs. peers. Upside: 454% AI cloud revenue growth is not a one-quarter fluke — GPU capacity expansion across Australia, NZ, and Europe creates a durable multi-year revenue ramp that the market is just beginning to price in; fib 1.272 extension at $341 is achievable within 2 weeks if AI capex headlines remain positive. Risk: Michael Burry is doubling his short, and at $259, NBIS has already run 3x from its 6-month low of $86.80 — any sign of demand deceleration or a hyperscaler capex cut announcement could trigger a violent reversal toward SMA-50 at $222.

HLIT (+18.8% today, +22.1% week) — $14.26 → $19.36 (+35.8% upside) Valuation: No forward P/E comp provided, but Harmonic’s broadband segment is growing at 54% YoY with record $587.6M backlog and raised guidance — this is a growth profile that deserves a premium to cable/telecom infrastructure peers. Upside: The 44% “rest of market” revenue growth (outside top-2 customers) solves the key bear thesis — customer concentration risk is actively de-risking, and with a record backlog providing revenue visibility, the multiple should expand toward the fib 1.272 extension at $19.36. Risk: The stock was below $9 just six months ago and has more than doubled — if the company’s two largest customers slow deployment timelines, the “diversification” narrative unravels fast; stop below SMA-50 at $13.34.

LITE (+13.6% today, +12.9% week) — $932.47 → $1,187.63 (+27.3% upside) Valuation: No forward P/E comp provided, but Lumentum is the highest-quality optical transceiver name in the AI connectivity supply chain — a respected semiconductor analyst sees 22% upside from today’s price, and the stock is still 11% below its 6-month high of $1,053. Upside: The optical interconnect TAM is structurally expanding as AI clusters demand 800G and 1.6T transceivers — LITE’s blowout quarter confirms it’s winning share, and the fib 1.272 extension at $1,187 represents a realistic 8–10 week target. Risk: At $932, LITE is approaching the fib 23.6% retracement at $936 which is now flipping to resistance — a rejection here drags it back toward the $864 fib 38.2% level; any weakness in hyperscaler capex guidance kills the optical trade entirely.

ATRO (+17.3% today, +13.9% week) — $87.89 → $99.04 (+12.7% upside) Valuation: FAIR at 29.9x forward P/E vs. peer median of 24.8x — the 20% premium is justified by 27% revenue growth and raised guidance; this is not a stretched valuation for an aerospace/defense supplier with record bookings. Upside: Dual secular tailwinds (commercial aerospace recovery + defense spending ramp) with a raised guidance print and record backlog creates the ideal setup for multiple expansion; the Army radio test ramp in H2 2026 provides a specific catalyst to watch. Risk: The stock has doubled in 2026 and every major valuation framework flags it as running above DCF intrinsic value — if Boeing/Airbus supply chain disruptions return (strikes, production cuts), ATRO loses both tailwinds simultaneously; stop at $79.35 (fib 23.6%).

MRX (+18.7% today, +10.7% week) — $71.13 → $84.37 (+18.6% upside) Valuation: No peer comps provided, but 39% YoY revenue growth with record profit across all four segments at a price that still has RSI of 15.42 (deeply oversold before today) suggests the market was deeply mispricing this commodity trading/market-making business. Upside: Marex is a London-based commodities broker with growing US institutional business — the 20% EPS beat and 18% revenue beat suggest the street was massively undermodeling this company, and re-rating toward fair value could drive continued upside to the fib 1.272 extension at $84.37. Risk: Commodities market-making profits are highly cyclical and correlated to volatility regimes — management noted lower exchange volumes and declining volatility from Q1 were headwinds, meaning Q3 results could disappoint if vol stays suppressed; the stock at its 6-month high has no historical resistance reference above.

Avoid

ARX — Already at the 6-month high with M&A deal fully priced in at $19.59; chasing a take-private above deal price is spread arbitrage territory with asymmetric downside if the deal hits regulatory friction or a buyer walks.

SHAZ (+21%) — RSI of 10.91 is anomalously low even after a 21% pop, suggesting severe data irregularity or a stock that was in freefall before today; the $4.9B NVIDIA deal and $8.8B revenue backlog are headline-grabbing but execution risks are enormous for a pre-revenue ramp company — this has been flagged as potentially overvalued since its 7.7x one-year return, and the 21% one-day move on thin volume (vol_vs_avg: 0.04) is a red flag for a pump with no real price discovery.

REPL (+11.7%, +28.8% week) — Replimune got FDA accelerated approval for Tudriqev on its third attempt after two complete response letters — that’s a celebrated binary event, but the company simultaneously has a 2027 cash cliff and faces the commercialization grind with no existing salesforce infrastructure; the stock has run from $1.70 to $15.24 in six months (nearly 8x) and the fib 1.272 extension at $18.92 offers only 24% further upside with enormous binary risk on the cash raise timeline.

WSB Sentiment Check

HTZ — WSB says: MIXED (55% bullish) Claude says: DISAGREE — Hertz is trading at $2.73 against a 6-month high of $7.81 and is sitting 65% below its SMA-50 of $2.90; this is a structurally impaired business with an EV fleet write-down overhang, and 644 WSB mentions on a sub-$3 stock with MIXED sentiment screams lottery-ticket bottom-fishing, not a real setup — the fib 61.8% support is all the way down at $3.92, meaning the current price is already below all meaningful technical support.

NBIS — WSB says: BULLISH (80% bullish) Claude says: AGREE — 454% revenue growth is not a WSB fantasy; it’s audited numbers, and the technical setup (RSI 50, still below 6-month high, SMA-50 well below current price) supports the bull thesis with room to run toward $341; the one caveat is Burry’s growing short position which is a real institutional counterweight that WSB should not dismiss.

SPCX — WSB says: BULLISH (80% bullish) Claude says: PARTIALLY — SPCX (a space-economy ETF) at $144.70 is 32% below its 6-month high of $211.39 with no SMA data available and heavy sector speculation; the 80% bullish sentiment likely reflects enthusiasm for space/defense themes post-AI rally, but this is a thematic ETF riding sector tailwinds with no specific near-term catalyst, and the fib 61.8% support of $147.66 is barely above current price — one bad space headline breaks this support decisively.

MU — WSB says: MIXED (55% bullish) Claude says: PARTIALLY — Micron at $914.95 is sitting below its 50-day SMA of $962 and well below the 6-month high of $1,213; the MIXED sentiment is honest — AI memory demand is real and the SMCI/CRWV earnings confirm it, but MU’s fib 38.2% support at $872.77 is the line in the sand, and with HBM pricing risk and China export controls as overhangs, this is a show-me story not a chase; fib 1.272 extension of $1,455 is the bull target if memory cycle turns.

ONDS — WSB says: BULLISH (80% bullish) Claude says: DISAGREE — OnDS at $9.28 is below all meaningful fib support levels (fib 61.8% at $9.22 is the only nearby floor), down 32% from its 6-month high of $13.58, and the 80% WSB bullish read with only 189 mentions feels like a small-cap squeeze setup rather than fundamental conviction; the SMA-50 at $8.44 is the real support, and with no earnings catalyst visible in the news feed, this looks like a sympathy play on AI networking themes that has no specific company-level catalyst to sustain the move.

Earnings Scorecard

NBIS — BEAT revenue by ~2% ($582M vs $570M est) | Stock: +34.1% | Reported: Wednesday After Close The reaction is justified and arguably still underdone — 454% YoY AI cloud revenue growth is a Category 1 beat; the market was clearly undermodeling NBIS’s GPU deployment pace. At $259, this is still below analyst consensus of $341 implied by technical targets. Buy-the-dip on any pullback to $239 (fib 23.6%).

CRWV — BEAT (specifics TBD) | Stock: +19.3% | Reported: Wednesday After Close Justified — CoreWeave is executing on its AI infrastructure buildout with 112.5% revenue growth and the market’s reaction validates the neocloud thesis. EV/EBITDA of 27.8x vs. peer median of 19.1x looks expensive in isolation but is CHEAP on a growth-adjusted basis. Hold with exit target at $159 (fib 1.272 extension).

SMCI — REPORTED EPS $2.26 | Stock: +19.0% | Reported: Tuesday After Close Justified — SMCI’s credibility restoration narrative is intact, Q4 beat plus strong Q1 outlook is the catalyst this stock needed after 18 months in compliance purgatory. RSI at 67.5 is not yet overbought. Buy-the-dip at $38.85 (fib 38.2%) if it pulls back.

LITE — REPORTED EPS $6.43 | Stock: +13.6% | Reported: Wednesday Justified but potentially insufficient — the analyst community sees 22% further upside from today’s price, and the stock is still 11% below its 6-month high. The optical AI infrastructure theme has the strongest structural tailwind in the current cycle. Buy-the-dip at $864 (fib 38.2%) on any pullback.

CBRS — REPORTED EPS $0.44, raised full-year guidance | Stock: +11.6% (but down ~20% from earlier in the week per headlines) | Reported: Wednesday After Close OVERDONE on the upside — Cerebras raised guidance but missed key estimates and is increasingly deriving revenue from cloud computing rather than its core AI chip business. That’s a business model red flag. The +11.6% day gain masks what appears to be a much larger pre-earnings decline this week. Current price of $262 is already below the fib 50% support of $239.80 on a broader basis. Sell-the-rip — this headline-guidance raise masks a core revenue miss and chip credibility problem.

HLIT — BEAT revenue by ~10.5% ($133.5M vs $124M est midpoint), EPS +41% | Stock: +18.8% | Reported: Tuesday After Close Justified and has legs — record backlog, raised guidance, and diversifying customer base all point to sustained outperformance. RSI at 64.2 leaves room to run. Buy-the-dip at $13.95 (fib 38.2%) if there’s a post-earnings fade.

ENS — BEAT EPS by 29.8%, revenue by 1.4% ($935.6M vs. estimates) | Stock: +13.0% | Reported: Wednesday After Close Justified — EnerSys’s 30% EPS beat is a massive earnings quality signal; the guidance for ~$975M next quarter is in line with estimates which prevents a re-rate higher immediately, but the earnings quality (operating beat, not just cost-cut driven) supports the move. Hold; support at $209.31 (fib 38.2%).

MRX — BEAT EPS by 20.6%, revenue by 18.1% | Stock: +18.7% | Reported: Wednesday Justified and potentially underdone — Marex was the most under-owned, under-covered name on this list before today; a record profit quarter with beats across all four business lines should drive institutional discovery over the next 2-4 weeks. Buy-the-dip; fib 23.6% at $64.51 is an aggressive stop.

ATRO — BEAT with raised guidance to $1.02B–$1.04B | Stock: +17.3% | Reported: Wednesday Justified — raised guidance plus record bookings in a defense/aerospace name with dual secular tailwinds is a textbook “buy the earnings” setup. The DCF-premium valuation caution noted in analyst coverage is a valid long-term concern but not a short-term trading impediment. Hold; stop at SMA-50 $74.08.

BIRK — BEAT revenue by 1.7%, MISS EPS by 1.2%, raised full-year guidance | Stock: +15.0% | Reported: Thursday Before Open Slightly overdone on a single-session basis — the guidance raise is real and the global double-digit growth is impressive, but a 15% move on a 1.7% revenue beat and EPS miss is aggressive. The stock at $42.26 is sitting on the fib 38.2% support of $42.18 which technically is a good entry, but the 6-month high of $48.97 is the more realistic near-term target. **Fair reaction; hold with exit at $53.81 (fib 1